Even full, EU gas storage lasts only three months
Tom KirkmanIndependent Project Manager
Even at full storage capacity, the EU still only has enough natural gas to last no more than 3 months.
Basically till the end of February, if this is an “average” winter, and is not colder than usual.
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“European gas storage sites are full! Some to the brim! Others to a little more than the minimum required by Brussels! It’s all going to be well because we have our storage filled to more than 80%! (Cue: “Ode to Joy”)
Actually, as Europe’s leaders are already beginning to admit, drop by drop, all is not going to be well, not without a substantial reduction in demand for energy. And not for a very long time, even with a substantial reduction in demand for energy.
… what *is* gas storage capacity?
On the face of it, the phrase is pretty self-explanatory and generally involves underground caverns. There’s an important bit right there that tends to get omitted. The European Union has 27 members.
● Not all of these members have underground caverns to store gas in. These members, therefore, have no physical way of filling up their gas storage. They don’t have any.
… The European Union’s total gas storage capacity is about 100 billion cu m, spread across 18 member states. This amount is enough to cover a quarter of the EU’s annual demand for gas.
● In other words, filled to the brim, EU storage could only cover consumption for no more than three months.
But that’s the total for the whole EU.
Gas consumption varies greatly between members, as illustrated by this chart that shows, for example, that Belgium is also in the unlucky club with storage filled at 100%, which can barely cover 5% of its annual consumption.
… The EU’s Energy Commissioner said it as plainly as possible: “We cannot plan a measure that will lead to more natural-gas consumption, because natural gas is not available.”
… Since the situation with gas supply hasn’t changed for the better over the past four weeks, unless you count the filling up of storage caverns, blackouts are still on the table, especially, media note in their reports, if winter turns out colder than usual. I feel compelled to dedicate a paragraph or two to this “colder than usual” concept.
… What all this means, whether we like it or not, is that Bulgaria, Germany, Greece and all the countries in between will be consuming a lot more energy two months from now, if the winter is average.
If the winter is colder than average, then the outlook for energy consumption moves from “a lot more” to “a whole lot more.”
… So, even a regular, average winter would drain gas in storage by the end of February although I’m beginning to think this is optimistic — Germans began turning on their heaters in September, which I thought was a bit early for heating but apparently it wasn’t. …”