Warned for months that next EU winter will be rough
Tom KirkmanIndependent Project Manager
This should not be a surprise. A number of us have already been warning repeatedly – for months – that *next* winter in the EU will likely be rough as far as energy.
With Nord Stream taken out of the equation, the next few winters in the EU will likely be difficult in supplying heat and energy to its people.
● Despite the EU sanctions ban on Russian coal (which started in August 2022), last year – in 2022 – Germany *increased* its import of Russian coal 37% more than in 2021.
In 2022, Germany imported:
● 13 million tons of coal from Russia
● 9.4 million ton of coal from the U.S.
● 6.3 million tons of coal from Australia..
In 2022, Germany purchased in total 44 million tons of coal, which is 8% more than in 2021.
So it appears that LNG and coal will likely be the rescuers for EU energy over the next few winters.
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“In the winter of late 2022 and early 2023, Europe got lucky. It got very lucky.
Gas storage sites were fuller than usual because of the massive LNG-buying effort the EU put into securing gas for the winter, and the winter itself turned out to be warmer than usual.
Yet luck, while a big part of Europe’s success in making it through winter relatively unscathed despite decimated Russian gas supply, was not all of it.
Europe made it because it had the money to pay such prices for LNG on the spot market, which made the fuel impossible to afford for many other countries, notably Pakistan and Bangladesh.
And now it has to do it all over again.
… “For this winter it is right to say that we are off the hook. If there are no last minute surprises, we should get through…maybe with some bruises here and there.
But the question is…what happens next winter?”
The question comes from the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, who talked to Reuters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference earlier this month.
And that’s not the first time Birol has warned again of premature calm in Europe.
“Even though we have enough LNG import terminals, there may not be enough gas to import and therefore it will not be easy this coming winter for Europe,”
Birol said, echoing earlier comments that Europe faces a deep supply gap with the disappearance of Russian pipeline flows via the now defunct Nord Stream infrastructure.
● That gap was estimated at 30 billion cubic meters by the International Energy Agency.
According to its head, this year will see 23 billion cu m in additional supply.
China is returning to business as usual, which means higher gas demand, while in the United States, gas drillers are reducing output because U.S. gas prices are near record lows. …”