The IEA has under-reported oil demand for over a decade
Tom KirkmanIndependent Project Manager
The world continues to need more oil and gas, and this is likely to remain true for many decades.
The IEA has consistently under-reported oil demand for over a decade.
The IEA has been repeatedly wrong, and remains to be wrong.
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“Like emissions, oil demand rose this year. Yet the International Energy Agency said it is close to peaking, thanks to transition efforts and energy efficiency gains.
Oil producers slammed the IEA for manipulating data.
The investment world was divided.
… In their latest quarterly market commentary, contrarian natural resource investment managers Goehring and Rozencwajg did just that: they reminded everyone watching COP28 and listening to all the talk about efficiency and demand for hydrocarbons that gains in the former never lead to a decline in the latter.
“It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.”
This is what William Stanley Jevons, a British economist and logician, wrote in the 19th century. He was talking about coal.
Close to 200 years later, the paradox still stands.
Yet it is not just the mistaken belief that greater energy efficiency would lead to lower consumption of hydrocarbons that has led Goehring and Rozencwajg to predict that oil demand is set to continue strong for more than a decade yet.
●》There is also an issue with the IEA’s demand forecasts: they have been underestimating oil demand for more than a decade.
●●●》In 12 of the past 14 years, the IEA, according to the investment firm, has underestimated oil demand by an average annual of 820,000 barrels per day.
This is quite a substantial amount when something as important as oil demand is being estimated. …”