Wind and solar cannot replace coal, especially in developing nations
Tom KirkmanIndependent Project Manager
Wind and solar cannot replace coal and natural gas, especially in developing nations.
As the developed nations push to replace coal with other energy sources, it tends to make coal even *cheaper* for the rest of the world.
Coal is a vital energy source for developing nations.
==========================
“The United States, the UK, Italy, France, Japan, Germany, and Canada this week struck an agreement to end the use of coal for power generation by 2035.
… Now, the biggest question is whether the G7 will turn words into actions—or rather, can it?
Coal as a source of power generation across the G7 economies accounted for about 15% of the energy mix, according to data from climate nonprofit Ember cited by Reuters’ Gavin Maguire in a review of the commitment and its potential impact on the seven economies.
… ending coal generation in seven of the world’s biggest economies will only make it cheaper for other big economies such as China and India, both of which quite like a bargain.
Other, poorer nations in Asia would only increase their use of coal because once the G7 end the use of coal, they would be forced to use more gas.
There is no realistic way in which wind, solar, and even new nuclear would be able to completely replace lost coal capacity.
Wind and solar are not dispatchable generation capacity, and this is one reason for the continued demand for hydrocarbons.
Perhaps the best evidence of this fact was Germany’s decision last year to take down a wind farm in order to expand a coal mine with a view to boosting coal power generation—despite its fast buildup of wind and solar.
… Yet AI, data centers, and the production of semiconductors for the booming information technology industry are not the only factors driving higher demand for electricity.
There is industrialization outside the G7, too.
And industrialization, which is making life a lot better for millions of people, inevitably drives higher energy demand, notably including electricity.
“The reality is we can keep adding renewables until we’re blue in the face and it won’t be enough,” the chief executive of one of India’s biggest wind and solar companies, ReNew, told the Wall Street Journal recently.
So, it is uncertain whether the G7 would be able to give up coal completely—even the UK, which only generates a small portion of its electricity from coal had to reopen a plant during a period of low wind power generation.
But even if they do – however high the cost – this leaves the rest of the world, which would start using more coal, not least because it would become even cheaper.
● The net effect of the G7 coal phaseout, if it ever materializes, may actually add to global emissions.”