Energy problems are morphing into social and political upheaval
Tom KirkmanIndependent Project Manager
More and more people are sounding the alarm about energy problems morphing into social problems and political upheavals.
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“The unity of EU member states could be in jeopardy as a dark winter fast approaches set to trigger a ‘continental scramble’ for energy resources. European countries would be in a “wild west scenario” in their attempt to pursue energy security which would result in souring relations with neighbors and cause worsening fuel and power shortages with risks of social unrest, warned Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, who was quoted by the Financial Times.
Birol spoke Thursday in an interview at the inaugural Global Clean Energy Action Forum in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, when he explained the energy crisis threatens to shatter EU unity as countries could restrict or stop trading energy resources with neighbors to ensure their own energy security.
● “The implications will be very bad for energy, very bad for the economy, but extremely bad politically … if Europe fails this test in energy, it can go beyond energy implications,” Birol said.
… There was no indication the energy crisis would abate next year, he said, given lack of spare capacity in energy production worldwide would drive market tightness, adding competition for liquefied natural gas would increase with Chinese demand.
“When we look around there are not many new gas [projects] coming . . . And the Norway, Algeria, Azerbaijan pipelines are near their maximum capacity. It will be another challenging period,” he said.
… On the social aspect, if one EU member country restricts power or fuel to another and triggers blackouts or rationing to protect its own security, this would certainly create social instability across the bloc.
● Europe is on the list of impending social unrest areas in the “next six months” by Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm.
It seems dark times are ahead for the bloc if EU unity shatters over energy security.”