Pop energy quiz: plants retire faster than replacements arrive
Tom KirkmanIndependent Project Manager
Pop energy quiz: if existing power plants are being retired faster than new replacement power generation sources can come online, what happens?
Add in to the equation that demand for electricity in the U.S is expected to grow 15% in the next decade.
“Reserve Margin” in electric power systems is something one may wish to pay attention to.
More about “reserve margins” in the article.
Please pay close attention to the last sentence excerpted below.
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“Existing power plants are projected to retire at a faster pace than installations of new units, and dependence on renewable projects are threatening widespread power shortages, according to a new report by regional power transmission company PJM Interconnection.
PJM analysis shows that 40 gigawatts (GW) of existing power generation is at risk of retirement by 2030, accounting for 21 percent of its current installed capacity.
… PJM also forecasts power demand growth of 1.4 percent annually over the next decade.
Certain individual zones might even show demand growth as high as 7 percent per year due to the expansion of clusters of data centers as well as overall electrification.
The retirement of existing power generation combined with the growing demand for power will create a supply gap.
According to the report, the pace of new power generation addition will likely be “insufficient” to fill this supply gap by 2030.
As such, the completion rates of upcoming projects will have to “increase significantly” to maintain necessary reserve margins, it said.
● Reserve margin refers to the amount of unused available power capacity of an electric power system.
A reserve margin of 10 percent would mean that an entity has excess capacity amounting to 10 percent of peak demand.
According to PJM projections, the reserve margin could fall
》from 26 percent in 2023
》to 15 percent by 2030
even in the best-case scenario.
● Reserve margins are critical during times of adverse weather conditions and periods of high demand.
A decline suggests less reliability of power.
… “All of this makes Americans more dependent on the electric grid at a time when utilities are accelerating the closure of coal and gas-fired plants, leaving the grid increasingly reliant on intermittent wind and solar power.
This has sparked warnings from utility infrastructure experts that America’s dash toward renewables could be driving our electric grid toward instability,” Stocklin writes.
● ● … The Indiana-based Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc. [MISO] is projecting a shortfall of 1,300 megawatts this summer that will continue to grow over the next 10 years as coal, nuclear, and natural gas generation “retire faster than replacement resources are connecting.”