Tom KirkmanIndependent Project Manager
aaaaaaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
And in more shocking news, sources say the sun is forecast to rise in the East tomorrow morning.
(Please forgive my amusement, I’ve commented literally hundreds of times *since early last year* that I expect oil [Brent] to average around $70 this year. Yes, I’m easily amused …)
FROM THE THREAD
Thanks for the chuckle, Syed Muhammad Osama Rizvi
Thanks for the chuckle, Syed Muhammad Osama Rizvi
Tom Erik Kool
One of my old comments on Oil Price forum from early *last year* :
===================
My view on oil prices are pretty clear. I've been pretty consistent about my views on oil prices since 2015.
But since I'm new to this forum, guess I need to reiterate.
In 2015 and 2016 I commented ad nauseum (mostly on the new defunct Oilpro forum) that I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $50 to $60, but closer to $50.
In 2017, I changed my view and comments to I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $50 to $60, but closer to $60.
This year, I changed my view and comments to I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $65.
And I would be happy if oil was a stable average around $70 for 2019.
Note that I think the value of the US Dollar will be devalued a bit later this year and early next year as the PetroYuan starts gaining international acceptance.
So in real terms, I'm actually hoping for oil prices to average $65 for 2018 and 2019.
$100 oil is not sustainable long term. $300 oil is just nuts.
Excessively high oil prices would kill global economies, and crash oil prices all over again.
https://community.oilprice.com/topic/1903-oil-at-300/#comment-10077
Tom Erik Kool
A more recent comment, about a month ago:
Tom Erik Kool
A more recent comment, about a month ago:
Fereydoun Barkeshli that $70 per barrel crude oil price target sounds like an absolutely wonderful consensus to me. 2 thumbs up.
Seems to me that independent U.S. Shale Oil producers will likely affect the price of their own WTI much more so than affect the price of Brent.
Hopefully the historical cyclical roller coaster ride of oil prices will be less extreme now that U.S. Shale Oil producers can react exceedingly quickly to oil price fluctuations.
Still seems to me that this year, WTI wants to tend to gravitate toward a center price of around $50, and Brent wants to tend to gravitate toward a center price of around $70. Just my opinion.
Fereydoun Barkeshli that $70 per barrel crude oil price target sounds like an absolutely wonderful consensus to me. 2 thumbs up.
Seems to me that independent U.S. Shale Oil producers will likely affect the price of their own WTI much more so than affect the price of Brent.
Hopefully the historical cyclical roller coaster ride of oil prices will be less extreme now that U.S. Shale Oil producers can react exceedingly quickly to oil price fluctuations.
Still seems to me that this year, WTI wants to tend to gravitate toward a center price of around $50, and Brent wants to tend to gravitate toward a center price of around $70. Just my opinion.
Eric Matter do you recall hearing these predictions just a few years ago, shortly after the last oil price crash:
● "Lower for longer
● "Lower forever
● "Oil will not go above $44 in my lifetime"
Fulton Wilcox hear hear, well said!
Enough already with the oil price rollercoaster extremes. A relative, long-term stable oil price would do wonders for global economies.
I wrote a bit about this August last year. Half a year later, my *centerpoint* has since shifted a bit, from $65 Bent to $70 Brent:
Hans Van Der Kammen I guesstimate the Saudis actually need around $85 to $88 oil to balance their budget. Lots of hands out for a piece of the oil revenue pie, from the top of the hierarchy (princes and the huge, extended royal family) all the way down to the lower ranking non-royal ordinary citizens who expect their "free stuff" from the government coffers.
So while they are pushing for $70 oil, they actually want $80+ instead.
Hans Van Der Kammen I guesstimate the Saudis actually need around $85 to $88 oil to balance their budget. Lots of hands out for a piece of the oil revenue pie, from the top of the hierarchy (princes and the huge, extended royal family) all the way down to the lower ranking non-royal ordinary citizens who expect their "free stuff" from the government coffers.
So while they are pushing for $70 oil, they actually want $80+ instead.
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